Farewell Dark City....
11 years ago
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
The State of the City - January 2009
Lynn Item: Bonfanti gives mid-term address
Salem News: Difficult cash decisions will be in cards for Peabody
I was unable to attend Mayor Bonfanti's mid-term address and the seating of the new City Council last evening. And the text of the speech is NOT (yet?) available on the Mayor's page at the City website. So these comments are based on the newspaper reports and other comments made at those sites and on the Peabody Patriot blog.
First, I think that the overall tone of the message - one of difficult times ahead - is nothing but accurate and a clear thinking assessment of what is to come. I disagree with those people who say he should be emphasizing the positive and downplaying the difficult realities we will all be facing. While "perception equals reality" can be true at times, in these circumstances I would prefer straight talk and not hearts & flowers.
I do not look forward to this coming year (and to be more honest... let's say YEARS because this recession is looking like nothing we have seen in most of our lifetimes). The best estimates for the length of the world-wide financial crisis I have read point to a 18 month (minimum) to 42 month (maximum) time frame... so I am betting on 2-1/2 years of difficult choices and unhappy citizens.
While I would not like to see the schools take the brunt of these cuts (especially not FIRST) I see the reality of the lower enrollments finally coming to a head. We simply have fewer children to educate at this moment, and while I STRONGLY SUPPORT a comprehensive analysis of future demographic trends for Peabody, I believe we are going to see fewer students for the foreseeable future.
Thus the closing of one (or more) schools is both a political reality and a good move for the vast majority of Peabody folks. Of course this will be very hard on some families who might have chosen their home based on proximity to a certain school... and I actually am a huge supporter of neighborhood schools, the times dictate a more cost effective distribution of our limited educational funds. Fewer schools will yield more educational value per pupil and per education dollar.
I strongly agree with the Mayor on the issue of Downtown improvements and the need to repopulate Downtown with businesses... but I believe the most intelligent method for achieving this goal is through the REZONING of Downtown (and the rest of the City) to promote a mixed-use of public, residential and commercial/business in the greater Downtown area.
What are your thoughts?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
7 comments:
This is -- without a doubt -- the most negative thing I've seen all these many months on Peabody blogs.
Way to go, PI. I just decided to kill myself.
Yup, this is the way to confront a problem. Just like your pal, Mikey. Crawl under a rock.
Your facts are a little bent here on the potential length and severity of this current recession.
It's true that economists say it could last from between 18 to 24 months. But it's also true that they pinpoint Dec. 31, 2007 as the start of that recesssionary period. That means, at worst, the recovery would begin by the end of 2009.
No recession in US history, not even the horrible one Jimmy Carter started in the 1970s, has lasted more than 16 months.
People have very short memories, but I seem to recall the Carter recessionary years are much more severe -- especially around here -- than this current downturn.
Back then, we had out of control gas prices and shortages, and 18% mortgage interest rates. As I recall, the unemployment rate in 1977 peaked at 7.3%. Our current national unemployment rate, even after all of the mass layoffs, is still at 6.7%.
You really need to get your facts straight rather than scaring the shit out of people.
OG says...
PI--I am ready to make some cuts but before I do let me ask this.....how much money does the city SAVE if we close ONE SCHOOL ? We need to come up with that number and point out the real cost savings to the publice.....so do we do we have an idea how much total actual money could be saved ? and if we decide to close ONE school can this be done by the start of the next school year because we need to find some QUICK savings!! To close a school two school years from now is really too late!
To This Blogger is a Joke...
Hey, this is what I have been reading and watching on the major media and blogs concerning these issues.
I also tried to use the wide range of times (18-42 months) as a clear indicator that I do not have the exact answer.
Now I did not include the start date as you pointed out... fine. I have heard that date used at times, but on others they seem to imply it is from TODAY forward.
I am willing to accept the date as a starting point, however I am not going to step back from the prediction that times will become very difficult and that we have only just begun to see the difficulties. Massachusetts has been somewhat spared in so far as job loses and economic impacts... but they have now begun in earnest and will continue for some time to come.
To Woe is Me:
Yes, it is going to be a difficult time for the next few years... and some (think middle to lower classes) will be stuck in the quagmire for much longer after the rich folks get through bailing themselves out of it. You need to stop complaining that the Mayor isn't selling you Snake Oil and heed the advice and prepare yourself for difficult times.
I am very sorry if you feel like I am telling you the real truth without the sugar coating. Indeed, truth can hurt... but information is power and what you choose to do TODAY may well mean the difference between a smooth transition to better times... or simply eking out a survival strategy when times get REALLY BAD.
I am not trying to scare people. I am trying to prepare people. I think Bonfanti was trying to do the same thing.
To OG Re: School closings:
I have no facts and figures on this one, sorry. I have found very limited information about the schools (numbers of teachers, pupils, salaries, etc) available on-line and I have no access to the School Department data.
I think the discussion of closing a school deserves its own post.
Please check it out Here. Comments and ideas are always welcome.
OG says...
SC member Mike Moutsoulas has all this data I am sure...he and others have been working on this project for quite some time and it is clear that Mayor Mike is intent on going this route...with proper analysis of the school enrollment data and effective inclusion of the school staff and the parents of course it can and must happen...but we have to show that it can be done and that the aftermath will not be a bad one apart from the 'inconvenience' of lost tradition and physical closeness to your neighborhood school.
Not to scare anyone further but...
This article is from CNN.
Fed predicts economy will get worse. January 6, 2009
"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com)
The U.S. economy is likely to deteriorate further this year and unemployment will rise into 2010, according to the latest forecasts from the staff of the Federal Reserve...
According to the minutes from that meeting, the central bank is now predicting that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, will fall in 2009...
The Fed indicated that most members at its meeting expected a slow recovery to begin in the second half of the year, but that unemployment would still rise "significantly" into 2010...
The Fed cited a multitude of problems dragging down the economy besides rising unemployment, including stock market declines, low consumer confidence, weakened household balance sheets and tight credit conditions. It said business spending is also likely to fall due to weak retail sales and the credit crunch.
In addition, some members of the Fed expressed concerns that the economy could worsen even more than currently expected.
"Meeting participants generally agreed that the uncertainty surrounding the outlook was considerable and that downside risks to even this weak trajectory for economic activity were a serious concern," the Fed said in the minutes....
If the current recession, which began in December 2007, lasts throughout 2009, that would make it the longest U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression."
Post a Comment