~~click image for a larger version~~BUT ONLY IF THE EDUCATIONAL INTEGRITY OF THE SCHOOL SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED!
Farewell Dark City....
11 years ago
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
School Enrollments Shrinking
There has been much discussion on the streets and the blogs about the possibility of a school closure. But now we finally get the first professional analysis (preliminary report) of the enrollment situation.
~~click image for a larger version~~
It shows a 14.39% decline in the student enrollments within the next 10 years time. If these numbers have validity, and I do not doubt that they are indeed accurate, then it seems to only make sense to discuss the possibility of closing one of the elementary schools here in Peabody.
BUT ONLY IF THE EDUCATIONAL INTEGRITY OF THE SCHOOL SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED!
~~click image for a larger version~~BUT ONLY IF THE EDUCATIONAL INTEGRITY OF THE SCHOOL SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED!
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10 comments:
Keyword here is Projected. These numbers are projected from the state average. Peabody is always pretty far off the state average in everything.
This is a bad move because our own city census does not support these numbers. Our census report shows a large number of under school age kids living in the city.
Not having personally read the draft report created for the school committee, I am not willing to specify exactly what numbers were, or were not, considered for this analysis.
I do know that this organization does this sort of thing for a living and employs established and reputable methods and methodologies in their workings.
I might well be wrong but I don't think this report is just taking the State-wide data and factoring out simply the portion that Peabody comprises. Perhaps you know more than I do about this?
OG says..
beyond the real and somewhat imagined trauma of closing one of our nice little expensive to operate neighborhood elementary chools I am hard pressed to see how our educational integrity may be impacted if we have one less building to staff and manage....the only big negative that I can think of is resulting class sizes that would exist in those schools most impacted by a closed school...and this is something that the grade level data would tell you as we move forward in time...do we have enough classrooms and can we keep class sizes in line with the guidelines of the teacher contract? if the answer is YES to each of these items then what are we waiting for? I find it hard to believe that we wouldn't have an easier time managing one less school population...now this may sound a bit 'cold' but this study is being pursued to investigate ultimate FINANCIAL benefit with LIMITED or NO negative educational impact as far as I can tell...if we have less kids to educate then we can do so in one less building...so we save the money and continue the task of educating the little darlings in one less school building...kids are resilient and adaptable for the most part...misguided or destructive thinking parents often times are the real problem....so yes PI we want to keep that 'educational integrity' as best we can but this may be a no brainer if those numbers are close to reality.
Funny little speculation to add to your post PI,
What usually happens in recessions?? C'mon C'mon
People are home, and guess what they have SEX. Thats right
S E X !!!
Now what happens??? C'mon C'mon
They have Kids. That's right
K I D S !!!
We have just created our very own "BABYBOOM" year! Look at the latest news clips on CNN, they say that we are following a pattern set forth by our antsisters (sp?). The great depression yielded the biggest babyboom in US history.
In 5 years the Peabody school system will be inundated with children. These "projected reports" are NOT reality.
Closing a school could be devistating to the city, these "babyboomers" are looking to move here.
First...
It is nice to know some folks are still reading this! Thanks!
OG: I agree it is ultimately a $$$ issue and that closing a school simply MUST save us money. And frankly a 14% drop in enrollments almost makes it idiot simple that we need to close one school.
If you look at the school system as a whole (GREAT information HERE on Zillow.com) we have:
Students: 6550
Schools: 10
Avg... 660/school
So if we will be having 900 less students closing one school is one appropriate response.
DARK City:
Welcome.
I find your comments about a baby boom during a downturn in the economy an interesting one - I simply must have missed these reports. Now I DO believe that we can learn some things from the downturns in the past...
But... I think that trying to compare 1929 to 2009 is a fools game. Times are so very different and the world has been remade many times in between.
Most people I know have already been having fewer and fewer children. The cost of raising a child in the past was minuscule compared to the costs of today.
I found this data comparing the cost of raising a child in 1995 to 2006 (from Here (USDA Site))
1995: Estimated yearly expenses per child
Lowest Income:$5,490 to $6,560 (<$33,700)
Middle Income: $7,610 to $8,710 ($33,700 to $56,700)
Highest Income: $11,320 to $12,550 ($56,700+)
2006: Estimated yearly expenses per child
Lowest Income: $7,580 to $8,570 (<$44,500)
Middle Income: $10,600 to $11,660 ($44,500 to $74,900)
Highest Income: $15,490 to $16,970 ($74,900+)
My thought is that people will be thinking very hard about whether or not to be having children during these hard times. In fact, this week I heard on NPR a report about how in Russia (where the State has been actively trying to increase the number of children born) the number of internet searches seeking abortion information has skyrocketed ~ with the assumption that it is due to the horrible economic situation.
So while I do not dispute that idle people might seek enjoyment in adult activities, I don't think that a huge new baby boom is in the mix for todays society... like it might have in the past.
Again, Welcome.
Anon, it's a mistaken leap of logic to think that birth rates will increase because people have nothing to do but stay home and have sex.
First, the baby boom generation began after WW2, not during the Depression. People were too uncertain of the future in the 1930s to have kids.
Second, the invention of birth control, and its wide availability and acceptability, have totally changed the demographic potential. Have all the sex you want; no need to have children as the inevitable outcome!
OG says..
people may be having more sex instead of going out for dinner but I heard the other day that vasectomy procedures have increased as well!
Let us hope to not devolve this post into the Peabody Swinger Club Minutes!
OG says...
as you all know OG only speaks the facts...read on and you will see that this is indeed a real issue!!
Doctors are reporting a sharp rise in requests for vasectomies since the economy went into recession.
This is particularly true in New York, where hospitals have shown about a 50 percent increase in the procedure since last year, with nearly 50 percent of these new patients coming from the financial sector.
draw your own conclusions...
I also do not understand the reasoning behind The Dark cities post about the number of students rising because of the recession. Yes more people are having sex because they cannot afford to go out as much but incase you havnt read the national data the average family has 2.5 chidren now and that is shrinking. Couples are waiting until they are in their late 20’s and early 30’s to get married and then only having 1 or sometimes 2 chidren now. The classroom sizes have gone from, as you say the baby boomers of years past at 30 or more per classroom to 20 on average now. My mother went to school in Peabody 30 years ago and graduated with over 800 students. That has been cut in half. Keeping an elementary school open with very few students is a waste of tax payers money. The staffing could be used elsewhere and the money could be used towards FIXING the Higgins and maybe even making some of these schools handicap accessible.
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